MTT Variance Rears Its Ugly Head

Since cashing in two straight Pacific MTTs on Sunday and Monday in early June, I'm 0 for my last 23 tournaments. Not a single cash. I've always known variance is huge in these things, but never experienced this much of a downswing. Been busting on hands where I'm 3:1, 7:1 favorites. It's not fun, but I know it comes with the territory in MTTs, as even the best online players have gone through $20,000 downswings (at higher stakes of course, but you get the idea).

I have a 127% lifetime ROI in MTTs, so I feel am decent in these (obviously not great, and there's always room for improvement). However, I think I'm partly to blame for even being in these situations. I'm setting myself up for these situations too much by not playing aggressively early and accumulating chips. As I approach the middle stages where stealing and restealing are absolutely necessary to stay in it, I don't have the chips to suffer any beats. I'm all in preflop, and my tournament life rests on one hand that I'm going to lose once every three or four times. Greg Raymer has played tournaments where he has NEVER had all his chips in for his tournament life. Instead, he slowly takes down little pots to build a stack that can withstand a few bad beats.

I need to stop telling myself to hold out for better situations when I feel I have an advantage early. I need to "channel my inner nath" (see 2+2) and get more aggressive with big draws early. Lately I haven't been getting many playable hands early, which is part of the problem. But I need to approach the game with less fear and more confidence in my abilities. I am rereading HOH 1 and 2, and really trying to understand TOP as I go through the rest of the month. Hopefully knowing the underlying concepts behind my plays will help me adapt to more difficult situations.

Look for (hopefully) better results in the future. Until then, time to continue the downswing. Hang on for the ride.