Instinct - USE IT

Maybe this idea is basic to a lot of the superior players, but I felt that writing this out really helped me understand more of the psychological part of the game.

This is my first attempt at writing actual informative articles relating to poker, so any feedback is greatly appreciated...GIVE ME COMMENTS! I hope it's not as dry as Sklansky's books.

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We’ve all had that feeling. I’m holding rockets against one opponent and the flop comes 973 rainbow. I bet, he raises. My stomach churns. Something inside is telling me I’m beat. But I have AA, doesn’t he KNOW what I have?? [Insert Phil Hellmuth quote here] So I push all in. He beats me into the pot with his 99. I don’t improve, and I flush another tournament buy-in down the toilet.

Some might say I was destined to lose that hand. “Oh you can’t do much when you have an overpair against a set.” After playing serious poker for over two years now, I have come to the realization that that little nagging voice might know more than I think. Playing the low limits after reading a lot of books during my first year or so of serious poker, I would hear this voice a lot, but just turn up my music, do what I wanted, and lose. Constantly. I’d see my opponent’s cards and say “I KNEW he had that!” You hear it all the time, even from pros on occasion. That instinct to make a tough laydown isn’t a voice that completely comes out of the blue. Although everyone may not agree with me, through my experiences, it comes as a result of hard work and studying the game, of knowing the situation you’re facing and the possible hands your opponent might have.

Instinct and that nagging voice are essentially the cliff notes to everything you have ever learned about poker. All the basics. Hand requirements. Playing styles of laggy, tight, passive, and aggressive opponents. Popular betting patterns. Observations you have made while you’ve been at the table. All the factors you learned, both consciously and unconsciously, get compiled into this voice. And when something seems fishy, it speaks up. And from what I’ve noticed, for the most part, it speaks the truth.

In a recent hand of mine from the Party 40k that I busted in late, the voice was SCREAMING at me. It’s a few posts back, but here’s the summary. 32 players left. I get AA in the CO, it’s folded to me. I raise my standard 2.5x BB and the BB, who’s been pretty tight and non-confrontational, calls. Flop comes KTT. I immediately hear it. “Oh shit.” BB checks, I make a c-bet of ½ the pot. BB calls. Turn is a blank. He leads out for ¼ the pot. I hear the voice again. “YOU’RE IN TROUBLE HERE!” So I just call. The river is another blank. He checks to me. My first instinct is to check right behind, as this was a very weird betting pattern. Then I overanalyze. “He was full of shit those first two streets, I’ll show him!” I push, and he calls instantly with KK. Nice Brian. I could have checked behind on the river and still had enough chips to make some plays and get deeper. But I ignored my read that something strange was going on in this hand, and it cost me.

The funny thing I’ve noticed about instinct is that beginners tend to rely on it more than some (NOT ALL) serious students of the game. I have seen countless players throw away a good hand (Celebrity Poker Showdown anyone?) because they “had a feeling they were beat.” Ok, sometimes – probably the majority of the time – they are wrong. But they are listening. And the times they do throw away a good hand could save a LOT of money. But as I (and I’m sure others) began reading countless books with strategy, playing styles, and examples of bluffs, I saw myself getting away from this voice. “What could that voice know? I’ve spent way too much time reading these damn books to fold a hand because ‘I had a feeling I was beat!’” The thing we don’t realize is that BECAUSE we read those books, instinct should come into play more than we think.

However, there is a drawback to relying on instinct more than you might otherwise. If you are running bad, every time you get raised, that voice will say “you’re beat, lay it down.” It is up to the thinking player to realize this is instinct’s evil twin – fear. The monster under the bed. Instinct can save significant amounts of money, especially in tournaments where one poor play can knock you out. Fear, on the other hand, can deprive you of significant +EV plays to take you to the final table.

After going on a terrible run, I like to reread some books to make sure my game is still sharp. I review tournament hand histories to see where I was making poor decisions. And once I erase the bad beats (or mostly bad plays) from recent memory, I’m ready to dive right back in. This practice essentially “resets” my poker instinct. It gets rid of the bad beats that infected it and caused me to think negatively. Afterwards, I think objectively. I don’t think I’m going to win every pot. But I will avoid the more of the situations that caused me to bust beforehand.

What I’m trying to get across here is that the voice that’s screaming, “FOLD!” or “CALL, HE’S BLUFFING!” is actually a significant source of knowledge. Listening to this voice, in the right state of mind, is a HUGE asset that separates a lot of top tournament and no limit players from the less successful ones. The ability to make a big laydown or pick off a bluff with bottom pair can give you a significant chip boost. These new chips are tools to use your superior knowledge to increase your chip lead, and make it deep into a tournament.

So next time you hear that voice, seriously consider what it’s saying. It is most likely pointing out flaws in your analysis that can save or make you a lot of money.

Just don’t talk back to it. People might think you’re a little crazy.